Equilibriums and the Market

I'm not sure about many people but whenever the mainstream gets all excited about how lay-offs in the US are slowing, I get leery. The reason why I am leery is that even though lay-offs are decreasing in number does not entail that the economy is rebounding. The important statistics that we need to pay attention to is not the slowing lay-off numbers but the numbers of created jobs. Whenever lay-offs slow down what that entails (at least in my little understanding of economics) that companies are finding their operating cost equilibrium within the economy, i.e., companies are no longer laying off employees because they have found the number of employees they need in their workforce in order to "turn a profit". Whenever lay-off slow, companies are finding their profitable equilibrium within the contracting economy. However, if lay-offs slow but a majority of those laid-off employees are not being hired, then relying upon the statistics of slowing lay-offs as a sign of economic expansion is not a reliable indicator.
Consider the following example:

Conglomo has 10,000 employees and Conglomo makes red tape. In a shrinking economy Conglomo's profits begin to drop and so in order to remain in business Conglomo lays-off 2,000 employees in the month of January and another 1,000 in February, thus bring their employee workforce to 7,000 and afterwards starts a hiring freeze (i.e., they will not being hiring new employees for a time). Of those 3,000 laid-off employees, let us say that 500 of them find new jobs; therefore, there remains 2,500 ex-employees who are out of work and are not able (or are too lazy) to find a new job. So, between the months of January and February, Conglomo's lay-offs has slowed by 1,000 but does that entail that the overall economic system that Conglomo is a part of is on the "rebound"? No, it does not, because despite the slowing of lay-offs, in the end we are still looking at a net loss of 2,500 jobs in the economy (this is derived by substracting 500 from 3,000, i.e., (3,000 - 500 = 2,500)). If 2,500 new jobs are not created in order to employ those remaining 2,500 laid-off employees, then there will no economic "rebound". The overall economy will continue to contract until new jobs are created.

If we consider this thought-experiment and then consider the US economy, the application (at least I think) is clear. Even though US companies are slowing (i.e., decreasing) the number of employees that they are laying off, if those laid-off employees cannot find jobs somewhere else, then the economy will not "rebound" but will continue to contract. Essentially the US economy is still trying to its equilibrium; what slowing lay-off numbers indicated that the job market is reaching its sustainable equilibrium, which unfortunately appears to further down, which entails more lay-offs in the future.
Now for some numbers in order to substantiate my argument. According to the CBO, tax revenues in the last quarter have fallen dramatically. From the CBO July Monthly Budget Review (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10454/08-2009-MBR.pdf):
"According to CBO’s estimates, receipts were about $8 billion (or 5 percent) lower in July 2009 than they were in July 2008, marking the 15th consecutive month in which receipts were lower than those in the same month of the previous year. Withholding for income and payroll taxes was about $11 billion (or 8 percent) less than that in July 2008, CBO estimates; about half of that decline resulted from provisions in ARRA, primarily the Making Work Pay tax credit. [...] Receipts from corporate income taxes have declined sharply, falling by $141 billion (or 57 percent). Continued weakness in corporate profits, recently enacted legislation (most notably provisions allowing more-rapid depreciation), and the ability of firms to use current-year losses to reduce tax liabilities from previous years all contributed to lower corporate receipts. Other tax receipts declined by about $15 billion (or 10 percent); almost half of that drop is attributable to lower receipts from the Federal Reserve, which primarily resulted from lower interest rates and losses on some assets acquired from Bear Stearns and American International Group (AIG)" (1, 2).

With tax revenues shrinking that entails that economy is not rebounding but is continuing to contract. Therefore, using slowing lay-off numbers as a way to entail economy expansion is a false negative.